XHEAT explores links from the North Atlantic to the Mediterranean
When a heatwave hits Southern Europe, it is natural to look for local explanations. But researchers in the XHEAT project are asking a broader question: could extreme weather across Europe be connected, from the North Atlantic to the Mediterranean?
This remains an open research question. By analysing satellite observations and climate data, the team is investigating whether temperature anomalies in the ocean may influence the development of heatwaves and droughts over land.
Identifying such connections is not straightforward. Extreme events are rare by definition, evolve differently in time and space, and involve interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, and land.
To explore this, XHEAT combines long-term Earth Observation datasets with statistical methods to analyse both simultaneous and time-lagged relationships between marine and atmospheric conditions.
The project focuses on several key regions, including the Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean basin, and Northern Europe. By comparing patterns of extreme events across these areas, researchers aim to better understand whether they are linked as part of larger-scale climate processes.
Rather than treating extreme events as isolated phenomena, this approach considers Europe as part of a connected system influenced by variability in the North Atlantic.
Figure 1: Extreme event indices during 2018: marine heatwave (MHW), atmospheric heatwave (Excess Heat Factor), and drought (Standardized Precipitation‑Evapotranspiration Index).
Understanding potential links between ocean conditions and extreme weather on land could help improve how climate risks are assessed and anticipated. If these relationships can be better characterised, they may contribute to:
Improved seasonal outlooks
Earlier identification of emerging risk patterns
More informed planning in climate-sensitive sectors
While the analysis is ongoing, XHEAT highlights the importance of looking beyond local drivers to better understand extreme weather in Europe. By exploring how different parts of the climate system interact, the project aims to support future work in climate risk assessment and preparedness.
XHEAT will be presented at the EGU General Assembly 2026 through the contribution “Connecting Marine and Terrestrial Extremes: Oceanic Drivers of Temperature and Precipitation in Europe”. The presentation by +ATLANTIC’s Fabíola Silva will take place on 6 May 2026, from 15:05 to 15:15 CEST, in Room 2.24, as an oral presentation.
The bigger picture: A hotter Europe needs climate actions Heatwaves, marine heat, and wildfires are no longer isolated events — they are interconnected phenomena that demand an integrated response.
The XHEAT project investigates the links between marine heatwaves, compound drought-heatwaves, and the increasing risk of wildfires across Europe. Our goal is to uncover how these extremes interact and what drives their cascading effects.
Funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), XHEAT brings together MET Norway, +ATLANTIC CoLAB from Portugal, and the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche from Italy to help Europe tackle climate resilience.
Wildfire risk is more prominent: 1040 fires have been detected across the EU, since January. That’s up from 688 last year. As Europe is warming faster than any other continent, the warmer and dryer conditions brought about by climate change will further increase the risk of wildfires in most of the EU. This data comes from @Copernicus_EU services by the Joint Research Centre. Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2025), processed by ESA. Photo courtesy of EU Science.
Project lead Jørn Kristiansen (MET Norway) explains that one of the project's key research areas focuses on how prolonged marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins influence atmospheric stability, leading to hotter, drier conditions on land.
The XHEAT project is not only advancing the researchers' understanding of these extremes, but also providing actionable insights to mitigate their impacts. The project's researchers want to improve real-time monitoring to enhance predictive capabilities
XHEAT will enhance our understanding of marine heatwaves and their impact on Europe's climate, says Jørn Kristiansen, Director of the Centre for Development of Forecasting Services at MET Norway.
“By integrating land surface temperature, soil moisture, and sea surface temperature, we aim to reveal how changes in the ocean ripple through to the atmosphere and land, exacerbating wildfire risks”.
Photo courtesy of Kathrine Lindsay, MET Norway
Image 1 : Kathrine Lindsay, MET Norway | Image 2: Mint_Images via Envato Elements | Image 3: DC_Studio via Envato Elements
By Charlotte Stark, MET Norway and Tiago Garcia, +ATLANTIC CoLAB
The XHEAT project investigates the links between marine heatwaves, compound drought-heatwaves, and the increasing risk of wildfires across Europe. Our goal is to uncover how these extremes interact and what drives their cascading effects.
Photo by Mint_Images via Envato Elements.
Funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), XHEAT brings together MET Norway, +ATLANTIC CoLAB from Portugal, and the Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche from Italy to help Europe tackle climate resilience.
Hot Europe: Mosaic from five overlapping orbital passes on the morning of 29 June 2025, captured by the Copernicus Sentinel-3 mission’s Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer. As the instrument’s name suggests, the image reveals the temperature of the land surface, not the air temperature. Unlike measurements of air temperature, this satellite instrument measures the actual thermal energy emitted from the Earth’s surface, which typically registers higher than air temperatures. Photo courtesy of esa.int.
Project lead Jørn Kristiansen (MET Norway) explains that one of the project's key research areas focuses on how prolonged marine heatwaves in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean basins influence atmospheric stability, leading to hotter, drier conditions on land.
Photo by adittoraian via Envato Elements.
Enhance future monitoring and forecasting:
XHEAT will enhance our understanding of marine heatwaves and their impact on Europe's climate, says Jørn Kristiansen, Director of the Centre for Development of Forecasting Services at MET Norway.
“By integrating land surface temperature, soil moisture, and sea surface temperature, we aim to reveal how changes in the ocean ripple through to the atmosphere and land, exacerbating wildfire risks”.
Photo courtesy of Kathrine Lindsay, MET Norway
The bigger picture: A hotter Europe needs climate actions
The numbers don’t lie: Europe is warming rapidly, and the consequences are becoming harder to ignore. Heatwaves, marine heat, and wildfires are no longer isolated events — they are interconnected phenomena that demand an integrated response.
Wildfire risk is more prominent: 1040 fires have been detected across the EU, since January. That’s up from 688 last year. As Europe is warming faster than any other continent, the warmer and dryer conditions brought about by climate change will further increase the risk of wildfires in most of the EU. This data comes from @Copernicus_EU services by the Joint Research Centre. Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2025), processed by ESA. Photo courtesy of EU Science.
The XHEAT project is not only advancing the researchers' understanding of these extremes, but also providing actionable insights to mitigate their impacts. The project's researchers want to improve real-time monitoring to enhance predictive capabilities.
Jørn Kristiansen continues “We want to see how these heatwaves and droughts are affecting farming, forests, and our natural ecosystems. This will help us better prepare for and manage the effects of extreme weather in the future”.
Climate action is not just about cutting emissions — it’s about protecting our forests, ecosystems, and people. As we face a future of more frequent and intense extremes, the need for knowledge and action has never been greater.
Photo by DC_Studio via Envato Elements
